What Today’s Inventory, Prices, and Mortgage Rates Mean for Buyers and Sellers in San Diego County

Over the past four years, many buyers and sellers have been waiting for a dramatic housing market correction.

It never came.

Instead of a crash, the market adjusted.

A recent report from Realtor.com shows that since January 2022:

• Active housing inventory has increased more than 140% nationally

• Median list prices remain roughly 8% higher

• Price per square foot has climbed more than 11%

• Mortgage rates peaked near 7.8% and now hover around 6%

• More than half of homeowners still hold mortgage rates below 4%

So what does that mean for buyers and sellers here in San Diego County — and specifically in Jamul and East County?

Let’s break down the four new rules shaping today’s housing market.

Rule #1: Inventory Can Rise Without Prices Collapsing

Yes, inventory is up.

Nationwide, active listings have more than doubled since early 2022. But supply hasn’t returned evenly across the country. Some regions saw major listing growth, while others remain tight.

More importantly, the type of inventory has changed.

In early 2022, most active listings were brand-new to the market. Today, a much smaller percentage are fresh listings. Instead, homes are simply sitting longer.

Median days on market have increased significantly compared to the frenzy years. That tells us something critical:

Homes aren’t selling instantly — but they’re not being fire-sold either.

Here in San Diego County, we’re seeing a similar pattern. Well-priced homes in desirable neighborhoods like Jamul still attract attention. But overpriced listings linger. Timing and pricing strategy now matter more than ever.

For sellers, this means preparation and positioning are critical. For buyers, it means you may have slightly more breathing room — but not unlimited negotiating power.

Rule #2: Higher Mortgage Rates Did Not Cause a Price Crash

When rates surged from the low 3% range into the high 7% range at their peak, many predicted prices would tumble.

That didn’t happen.

Despite borrowing costs rising sharply, national home prices remain higher than they were in 2022. In most major markets, price per square foot is still elevated compared to four years ago.

Why?

Because demand slowed — but supply never flooded the market.

San Diego County remains a supply-constrained area. Land is limited. Desirable communities like Jamul, Rancho San Diego, and La Mesa continue attracting buyers who value space, views, and lifestyle.

Higher rates changed buyer behavior. They did not erase equity gains.

Today’s buyers are payment-focused. Monthly affordability drives decisions. But sellers who price strategically are still achieving strong results.

Rule #3: Sellers With Equity Can Afford to Wait

One of the biggest shifts in today’s market is seller behavior.

Delistings — when homeowners pull their property off the market — have risen dramatically compared to 2022.

Why?

Because many homeowners are sitting on significant equity and ultra-low mortgage rates. Over half of borrowers still have rates below 4%.

That combination gives sellers flexibility.

If offers don’t meet expectations, some homeowners simply withdraw the listing and try again later. They are not under financial pressure.

In San Diego County, especially in higher-end or rural communities like Jamul, this patience is very real. Sellers know the value of their land, views, and lifestyle. They are not eager to discount aggressively.

This creates a market that can feel “stalled” rather than distressed.

Homes don’t always trade quickly. But they also aren’t being liquidated.

Rule #4: Mortgage Rate Lock Is the Gatekeeper

Mortgage rates remain the single biggest influence on housing activity.

When rates peaked near 7.8%, buyer demand cooled quickly. Now that rates sit closer to 6%, activity has stabilized — but affordability remains tight.

Here’s the tension:

• If rates drop further, more buyers will jump back in.

• But many homeowners may still hesitate to give up their 3% mortgage.

That “rate lock” effect limits how much inventory can return.

For Jamul and East County specifically, this matters. Many long-term homeowners locked in historically low rates and have little incentive to move unless lifestyle demands it.

That keeps supply controlled.

And controlled supply supports pricing stability.

What This Means for Buyers in San Diego County

If you’re waiting for a crash, the data suggests that broad-based price declines are unlikely unless supply meaningfully outpaces demand.

However:

• Homes are sitting longer.

• Sellers are more open to negotiation than during the pandemic surge.

• Strategic offers can still win.

This is a more balanced market — not a distressed one.

Buyers who understand monthly payment, rate strategy, and long-term value are in the strongest position.

What This Means for Sellers in Jamul and East County

This market rewards precision.

You cannot rely on “list it and they will come” like in 2021.

You must:

• Price correctly from day one

• Present the property impeccably

• Market aggressively across digital platforms

• Understand buyer psychology

Inventory may be higher nationally, but in micro-markets like Jamul, the right property still stands out.

The sellers who succeed today are the ones who treat their listing like a product launch — not a passive posting.

The Bottom Line: Recalibration, Not Reset

Four years into a higher-rate environment, the housing market has adjusted rather than collapsed.

• Inventory increased.

• Prices held firmer than expected.

• Sellers became more patient.

• Buyers became more payment-conscious.

In San Diego County, and especially in Jamul’s luxury and semi-rural markets, those trends are amplified by limited land and strong lifestyle appeal.

The market didn’t break.

It recalibrated.

And in this recalibrated environment, strategy matters more than ever.

If you’re considering buying or selling in Jamul or anywhere in East County San Diego, understanding these new rules is the difference between guessing — and negotiating from strength.