Across the United States, homeowners are holding onto their properties longer than at any point in modern housing history. By the end of 2025, the average homeowner tenure reached 8.55 years, the longest stretch recorded since national tracking began in 2000. While this trend is visible nationwide, it is especially pronounced in high-cost coastal states like California.

This shift is reshaping housing supply, buyer competition, and pricing dynamics in ways that directly affect homeowners, buyers, and investors alike.

Why Homeowners Are Waiting Longer to Sell

Several structural and financial forces are keeping homeowners in place longer than in previous housing cycles.

One of the biggest drivers is the mortgage rate lock-in effect. Millions of homeowners secured mortgage rates in the 2–3% range during 2020–2022. Selling a home today often means replacing that rate with one that is double or more, dramatically increasing monthly housing costs even if the new home is similarly priced.

At the same time, housing inventory remains limited. Many homeowners who would otherwise consider moving simply cannot find a suitable replacement property. Downsizing, relocating, or upgrading often results in higher costs, fewer choices, or both.

High home prices further complicate mobility. While prices have cooled from peak levels, they remain elevated enough that moving often feels financially unattractive, especially for homeowners who already feel secure in their current housing situation.

Why California Stands Out

California homeowners are staying in their homes significantly longer than the national average, with average ownership tenure exceeding 11 years. This is not a short-term market fluctuation but a reflection of long-standing structural conditions.

California faces persistent supply constraints, including limited developable land, strict zoning regulations, environmental restrictions, and lengthy approval timelines for new construction. These factors restrict how quickly new housing can come to market, particularly in coastal and urban areas.

Replacement costs are also among the highest in the country. For many California homeowners, selling means re-entering a market with fewer options and higher costs, even after factoring in home equity gains.

As a result, even as buyers in many parts of the country gain negotiating power, California remains more competitive. In several major California markets, buyers continued to pay at or above list price through 2025, underscoring the imbalance between supply and demand.

A Contrast With Other States

The picture looks different in states like Texas and Florida, where residential construction has expanded rapidly over the past several years. Increased supply in those markets has eased pressure on prices and given buyers more leverage.

In contrast, many California and Northeast markets remain tight despite national headlines suggesting improving inventory. In some regions, active listings are still well below pre-pandemic norms, reinforcing longer homeowner tenure and reduced turnover.

Is the “Silver Tsunami” Finally Coming?

For years, housing analysts have speculated about a wave of baby boomers selling homes as they downsize or relocate, often referred to as the “silver tsunami.” While some long-term owners are selling, current data does not suggest a widespread generational sell-off yet.

Inventory has improved modestly, but nationally it remains roughly 13% below pre-pandemic levels, and in some coastal and Northeast metros the gap is far larger. This indicates that while more homes may come to market over time, any increase is likely to be gradual rather than sudden.

Signs the Market Could Shift

There are early indications that the forces keeping homeowners in place may slowly ease. The share of homeowners with mortgage rates above 6% has now surpassed those holding rates below 3%. As time passes and life events drive decisions, the lock-in effect may weaken.

If interest rates continue to stabilize or decline, and inventory improves even modestly, homeowner mobility could begin to increase over the next several years. However, in states like California, structural supply constraints mean turnover is unlikely to return to historical norms anytime soon.

What This Means for Today’s Homeowners

For homeowners, especially in California, longer tenure reflects both market strength and limited flexibility. Staying put has protected many owners from rising housing costs, but it has also reduced options for those who want or need to move.

For buyers, the takeaway is clear: competition remains strong in supply-constrained markets, even as national conditions soften. And for sellers, well-positioned homes continue to command attention, particularly in areas where inventory remains scarce.

Understanding these trends is critical. Today’s housing market is not behaving like past cycles, and decisions around buying, selling, or holding require a deeper, local perspective than ever before.