What Falling Sales and Flat Prices Really Mean for the San Diego Housing Market

If the San Diego housing market feels quieter right now, you’re not imagining it.

Across San Diego County, many buyers have shifted into what we call wait-and-see mode. Homes are still selling, but at a slower pace, and pricing has flattened as buyers become more cautious and selective.

This is not a market crash. It is a market pause.

Understanding the difference matters, especially if you are considering buying or selling in Jamul, Rancho San Diego, Alpine, or East County San Diego.

Home Sales Slowed Sharply in November

According to data from ATTOM Data Solutions, 1,913 homes sold in San Diego County in November, representing a significant drop from the prior month.

While November is typically a slower time of year for real estate, this slowdown was more pronounced than usual. In fact, it marked one of the slowest November sales totals the county has seen in decades, signaling hesitation rather than lack of interest.

Buyers did not leave the market. Many simply stepped back.

Why Buyers Are Hesitating Right Now

From our conversations with buyers and sellers throughout East County San Diego, the slowdown is being driven by several overlapping factors:

1. Mortgage Rates Remain Volatile

Mortgage rates are lower than they were a year ago, but small increases still impact buyer psychology. Even minor rate movement can change monthly payments enough to cause hesitation, especially for buyers stretching affordability.

Data from Freddie Mac shows the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate edged up slightly in November, reinforcing uncertainty.

2. Affordability Pressure Has Not Gone Away

Home prices in San Diego remain high by national standards. Even with slight monthly price dips, buyers are still navigating large purchase prices combined with insurance, taxes, and maintenance costs.

3. Insurance and HOA Costs Are Creating Sticker Shock

Rising homeowners insurance premiums and increasing HOA fees have become a major concern, particularly for condo and townhouse buyers. In many cases, monthly HOA dues are pushing total housing costs beyond what buyers initially expected.

This has been especially impactful for first-time buyers who turned to condos as a more affordable entry point, only to discover high recurring fees.

4. Broader Economic Uncertainty

Concerns about job stability, wage growth, inflation, and global economic events are influencing buyer behavior. Large purchases like homes are often delayed when people feel uncertain about the bigger picture.

What Is Happening With San Diego Home Prices?

San Diego County home prices have remained relatively stable, with only minor movement month to month.

The countywide median price sits just above $870,000, showing a small decline from the previous month and essentially flat year over year.

Breaking it down further:

• Single-family homes remain strong, with prices holding steady near the $1 million mark

• Condos and townhomes have seen slightly more softness, particularly where HOA fees are high

• Price growth in California overall is currently trailing the national average

This pricing behavior is consistent with a market that is rebalancing, not collapsing.

What This Means for Buyers in Jamul and East County

For buyers, today’s market rewards patience, preparation, and strategy.

With fewer buyers actively competing, well-qualified purchasers may find:

• Less competition on desirable homes

• More room for negotiation

• Better inspection and contingency outcomes

• Sellers more open to concessions

However, waiting solely for rates to drop can be risky. When rates fall meaningfully, buyer competition typically increases, which can put upward pressure on prices again.

What This Means for Sellers

For sellers in Jamul, Rancho San Diego, and surrounding communities, pricing and presentation matter more than ever.

Homes that are:

• Properly priced for current conditions

• Well-prepared and staged

• Marketed strategically and locally

are still selling.

Homes that chase yesterday’s pricing or rely on “testing the market” often sit longer, even in desirable areas.

This is where hyper-local knowledge makes a difference.

The Bigger Picture: A Market Catching Its Breath

The San Diego housing market is not flashing warning signs of collapse. It is adjusting after years of rapid change.

Buyers are cautious. Sellers are recalibrating. And both sides are looking for clarity.

Markets like this tend to reward those who understand timing, pricing psychology, and local trends, rather than headlines.

Bottom Line

San Diego homebuyers have not disappeared. They are watching, waiting, and doing the math.

If you are thinking about buying or selling in San Diego County or Jamul, the most important step right now is understanding what the current data means for your specific situation and your neighborhood.

A thoughtful, no-pressure conversation can help you determine whether now is the right time to move, or whether waiting strategically makes more sense.

The market is still moving. It is just moving more carefully.